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Along the southern portion of the San Andreas, closer to Los Angeles, researchers projected a 19 percent chance of a 6.7 or greater magnitude quake.īut earthquake prediction isn't an exact science, and those numbers shouldn't give too much comfort. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities predicted that there was a 72 percent probability of a 6.7 or larger magnitude quake hitting the San Francisco Bay area by 2043, but only a 22 percent chance of a quake that big or bigger on the northern portion of the San Andreas. That's led to widespread worry that California is overdue for a devastating quake somewhere along the San Andreas.
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It destroyed 28,000 buildings and caused the equivalent of more than $11 billion in today's dollars in monetary losses.īut despite its enormous destructive potential, the northern part of San Andreas has been largely quiet since then, and the southern portion hasn't had a major earthquake since the 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on Jan. The quake and the massive fire that swept through San Francisco afterward killed more than 3,000 people, while leaving homeless another 225,000 - more than half the then-population of San Francisco. While its magnitude is uncertain, scientists have estimated that it may have been as large as 8.3. The San Andreas is the stuff of nightmares because back on April 18, 1906, it caused the most catastrophic event in California history, the great San Francisco earthquake, which was so powerful that it caused a rupture in the land that stretched for 296 miles (477 kilometers).